singapore-property-chart-since-1976-to-2016

Even though there can be events that direct the movement of property pricing, given Singapore with its limited land size, with high ratio of Citizen earning decent income, policy that welcome foreigner and a stable government, all these factors contribute to higher demand for property in Singapore as compare to most neighbouring countries. Singapore property prices in the long run is still heading north and a good hedge against inflation and secure.

There are 2 major factors that will affect property pricing in Singapore, i.e., controlled factors and uncontrolled factors.

Uncontrolled Factors

Any Financial Crisis will definitely have a great impact on everything, including property prices. The financial crisis will slow down the price upward trend but often is temporary as people still believe in property as a better hedge against inflation and security. Without financial cycles, property prices today may be too high for reach for most people. Looking at the bigger picture, this is actually something good, with market correction, avoiding big bubbles in property market.

Before the Asia Financial crisis in 1997, property price is heading North, this create believed in people to invest property.

After event like Asia Financial crisis, the trend is supposed to move upwards rapidly but due to SARS, prices was suppress for few years. With confident coming back slightly before 2007, another crisis struck during the Global Financial Crisis in 2007/8, which pushed the prices down again. This time after the sharp downturn, the price went up pretty fast, without event like SARS to suppress the price from moving upwards. Therefore, “Controlled Factors” was implemented.

Controlled Factors

This is mainly government intervention which happens in 1996 and 2009 onwards. The most effective will be the more drastic regulation with the ABSD (Additional Buyer Stamp Duty), SSD (Seller Stamp Duty) and the implementation of TDSR (Total Debt Servicing Ratio).

Many people are complaining of the higher tax when the measures was introduced, as time goes by, people tends to forget and accepted this as part of the deal when purchasing property, therefore “Controlled Factors” don’t have a sharp downturn effect, as the regulation is often not to crash the market, instead is to have a soft landing.

In March 2017, Government had very slight adjustment on Singapore property regulation. The move may be insignificant but it does show the government does felt the plane had touches on the runway, although they are not admitting on the fact that property price had reach its resistant level, I believe their intention is also not to create a rush for people buying property thus pushing the prices up by too much, defeating their effective effort since 2013.

edm-property-news-regulation-web

Other than regulation on consumer, another contributing factors will be from the developer. They are running a business, they need profit, so they need to acquire land in order to do so. With limited land sales from Government, they also look at En-bloc, biding at higher value in order to get the deals. Developers are not ordinary businessman, the investments are in hundreds of millions of dollars and can reach billion mark. They hire top brains to calculate the right amount of bidding and still a profitable business. So, with calibrated moves, will developers go wrong? Often, they don’t, because the calculated launched prices today has been extrapolated to match the dynamic market price movementWhat seems high priced today, will look cheap tomorrow.  Looking at the chart you will understand why. Property is a long term investment, in long run, investing in property will not let you down.

 

Disclaimer:

The above article are personal opinions of the author and reader discretion is advised. 


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